Rethink Your Email and Direct Mail Strategy With These Tips
Rethink Your Email and Direct Mail Strategy With These Tips
Marketers have more tools at their disposal than ever before. But with all the data, channels, and campaign automation at hand, there’s one truth that still trips teams up: spending more doesn’t guarantee better performance.
That’s the core tension behind a recent study titled “Direct mail to prospects and email to current customers? Modeling and field-testing multichannel marketing,” published in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science (JAMS). The researchers—Albert Valenti, Shuba Srinivasan, Gokhan Yildirim, and Koen Pauwels—set out to answer the question: How can retailers get more out of the online and offline marketing channels they’re already using?
To do that, they looked at how two retailers—an international beauty brand and a U.S.-based apparel company—used email and direct mail across different customer groups. They analyzed four years of marketing and transaction data from nearly 85,000 customers across six countries, then tested their findings in a randomized field experiment involving 120,000 customers. What they discovered has clear, practical implications for marketers trying to optimize multichannel campaigns.
Not All Customers Respond the Same
One of the study’s key contributions is how clearly it illustrates the importance of customer segmentation—specifically, segmenting based on customer value. Using a model that grouped customers into value tiers (including prospects, dormant customers, and high-value active buyers), the researchers tracked how each group responded to marketing outreach.
What emerged was a pattern: direct mail was most effective for acquiring new customers and, in some cases, reactivating those who had stopped engaging. These groups—prospects and dormant customers—were more likely to take action when they received a physical piece of marketing. Meanwhile, email was far more effective at driving sales among medium- and high-value active customers.
That distinction matters. Too often, marketers send the same types of messages to everyone, regardless of their level of engagement or past behavior. This research shows that the success of a message isn’t just about what it says or how it’s written—it’s also about who receives it and how.
A Common Misstep: Overspending on the Already Engaged
One of the more counterintuitive takeaways from the study is that sending costly direct mail to high-value customers may be a waste of budget. These customers already know your brand. They’re engaged. And according to the study, they’re far more responsive to email than to direct mail.
In practice, this means you may be overspending on people who are already likely to purchase—and underspending on the ones who need more attention. Instead of treating direct mail as a premium benefit reserved for your best buyers, this research suggests using it as a targeted tool for acquisition and reactivation. And instead of relying on email to rekindle interest from lapsed customers, focus that channel on deepening loyalty among your most active ones.
Reallocating Budget vs. Expanding It
One of the most actionable takeaways from the research is that improving marketing performance doesn’t always require a bigger budget—it often just requires a smarter one. In a field test conducted with the beauty retailer in Italy, the researchers applied their model-driven recommendations in a real-world setting. By reallocating—not increasing—email and direct mail efforts across customer segments, the company saw a 13.5% revenue lift.
That result reflects the outcome of a single experiment with one brand in one market. It’s not a universal benchmark, but it does underscore the potential of rethinking how resources are distributed.
Instead of taking a blanket approach to outreach, the research team recommended shifting direct mail toward prospects, focusing email on high-value current customers, and reducing activity for segments unlikely to respond. The impact wasn’t about doing more—it was about doing what works, where it works best.
A Smarter Way to Guide Your Strategy
Behind the recommendations was a data-driven framework that helped marketers predict how each segment would respond to different types of outreach. Using customer history and purchasing behavior, the researchers built a model to track online and offline sales across segments and channels. This gave them a clearer picture of what was actually working—and where the budget could be shifted to make the biggest impact.
Even if you’re not running predictive models, the takeaway is actionable: segment your audience based on value and behavior, test what works by channel, and reassess regularly. A periodic, structured review of campaign performance can lead to smarter budgeting and better returns—without requiring a complete overhaul of your tools or systems.
Bringing It Back to the Real World
For marketing practitioners, this research offers more than just theory. It presents a practical framework for thinking about segmentation, channel selection, and resource allocation. You don’t need to replicate the full econometric model used in the study to benefit from its core insight: Match your message and channel to the customer’s current relationship with your brand.
Prospects and dormant customers may need the attention-grabbing power of a physical mailer. High-value, engaged customers? They probably just need a well-timed email with a compelling offer. The key is recognizing that not every tactic works for every audience—and that what feels intuitive (like rewarding loyal customers with more expensive mailers) may not always be the most effective.
When marketers think critically about who they're reaching, how they're reaching them, and whether that approach aligns with customer behavior, better results follow. As this research shows, the smartest marketing strategies aren’t always about doing more. Sometimes, they’re about doing less—more thoughtfully.
About the Research
Direct mail to prospects and email to current customers? Modeling and field‑testing multichannel marketing
Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science (JAMS), 2023; Volume 52, Issue 3
Authors:
Albert Valenti
Citation:
Valenti, A., Srinivasan, S., Yildirim, G. et al. Direct mail to prospects and email to current customers? Modeling and field-testing multichannel marketing. J. of the Acad. Mark. Sci. 52, 815–834 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-023-00962-2
From the Authors
How can the recommendations from your findings specifically be implemented?
The recommendations from our findings can be implemented through the following steps:
Segment Customer Base Using RFMC Metrics: Companies can use the RFMC (Recency, Frequency, Monetary value, Clumpiness) model to classify customers into segments (e.g., prospects, dormant, medium-value, high-value). This segmentation helps tailor messaging based on customer lifetime value and channel responsiveness.
Channel-Specific Messaging Strategy:
Direct Mail for Acquisition: Based on our findings, allocate direct mail budgets primarily toward prospect segments to drive offline acquisitions. For example, design high-impact mailings for prospects, highlighting introductory offers or brand stories that resonate in physical form.
Email for Current Customers: Deploy emails for current customers, especially medium- and high-value segments, to drive both online and offline sales. These emails should focus on reminders, new product releases, and rewards to reinforce loyalty and encourage repeat purchases.
Data-Driven Marketing Resource Allocation: Use data analytics to monitor channel performance and sales responsiveness across segments. Implement an adaptive approach where direct mail and email frequencies are optimized per customer segment based on past responsiveness. This involves setting budget constraints and periodically reallocating resources based on performance.
Cross-Channel Consistency and Timing: Align content and timing across channels to create a cohesive customer experience. For instance, follow up direct mail campaigns with personalized emails for those who show interest, bridging offline and online engagement and reinforcing message recall.
Experimentation and A/B Testing: Test different approaches with a subset of customers to refine and confirm effectiveness before scaling. For example, run A/B tests with varying message types or frequencies within each channel for a particular segment, analyzing which combinations yield the highest engagement and sales impact.
Evaluate and Adjust Based on KPIs: Continuously track performance metrics, such as response rates, conversion, and sales uplift per segment, to gauge effectiveness. Regularly reassess and adjust the channel mix and resource allocation based on these insights, ensuring alignment with evolving customer behaviors and preferences.
Implementing these recommendations enables a targeted, data-informed approach, maximizing the impact of each marketing channel according to customer segment needs and behaviors.
The company would need to collect data on their customers to estimate methodologically the proposed approach. That is, a sample of customers with individual level purchase and communications data. Typically, this is more easily collected from customers part of the loyalty program.
What outcomes would be expected?
Implementing these recommendations should lead to several positive outcomes:
Increased Sales and Revenue:
Targeted direct mail to prospects should lead to higher acquisition rates and incremental sales growth in offline channels, as direct mail’s tangible format can effectively capture prospects’ attention.
Tailored email campaigns for current customers, especially those in medium- and high-value segments, should boost both online and offline sales by encouraging repeat purchases and enhancing engagement with the brand.
Improved Return on Marketing Investment (ROMI):
By reallocating budgets to the most responsive channels for each customer segment, companies can expect a more efficient use of marketing resources, reducing wastage on low-impact messaging.
This optimized approach can potentially increase ROMI, as the findings suggest that such budget reallocations could yield a revenue lift of up to 13.5% for certain segments, compared to previous allocation strategies.
Enhanced Customer Loyalty and Retention:
For high-value and medium-value segments, targeted email reminders and rewards could strengthen brand loyalty and increase lifetime value, as these customers feel more valued through relevant and timely communications.
The focused approach for current customers can also reduce churn, as they are more likely to stay engaged with a brand that understands and meets their preferences.
Better Cross-Channel Synergy:
The coordinated use of direct mail and email enhances cross-channel synergy, creating a consistent brand experience that guides customers smoothly between online and offline touchpoints. This synergy can improve brand recall and contribute to a cohesive customer journey.
Data-Driven Decision-Making:
Regular evaluation of channel effectiveness by customer segment enables a more adaptive marketing strategy that evolves with changing consumer behaviors, preferences, or external factors. This also provides ongoing insights for refining segmentation and improving future campaigns.
Competitive Advantage in Customer Engagement:
Companies can achieve a competitive edge by using these insights to create personalized, effective marketing that resonates with different customer segments, distinguishing them in a crowded marketplace.
In sum, these outcomes position companies to achieve more meaningful customer interactions, higher conversion rates, and a well-optimized marketing budget aligned with customer needs.
